"Outside The Boroughs"
(Preseason Issue #3)
A look around the league,
So short and so sweet
NL Central
Cincinnati’s youngsters need to stay calm and understand that what they did by winning 91 games last year was not a fluke. Dusty Baker fell upon some solid players and should be able to ride the lucky train again, barring any foolish decisions he might make throughout the season. This group of ballplayers defines the word "team" and should only gain confidence and chemistry because of last year’s run to the top of the NL Central. If they can pitch as good and keep the production on offense all down the eight position player lineup they could gain five or so more victories to solidify a return to the postseason. Not too hard to consider with last year’s NL MVP Joey Votto and a now seasoned Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce. The closer Francisco Cordero is a big question mark for me. Age and his late season falter last year raised these questions, but I’m a firm believer of some team, any team for that matter to bring back the platoon-type closer role that teams like the Mets used in the 80’s. (Like in Atlanta this year, why not use Kimbrel and Ventures on and off? One’s a righty and the others a lefty, but I guess contracts and money means more than making sense of it all and what is best for the team.) I also have a tough time giving credit to Dusty Baker. I honestly don’t know why or have any concrete reason behind these thoughts besides his duffle-bag of past failures. My trust in Baker just doesn’t exist.
In early February I was going to give the NL central and even the NL Championship to the St. Louis Red Birds until Adam Weinwright went down. Yes, a twenty game winner for two straight years is that important. I thought with Carpenter, sophomore Jamie Garcia and the bats of Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols would be enough to carry this team to a big part of the promise land, but times have changed. So in my crazy mind St. Louis went from NL Champs to missing the playoffs. Lohse and Westbrook seem to be garbage men to me and now I’m having doubts about Carpenter getting though 200+ innings this year whether it is due to the injury bug or getting traded. J. Garcia enters his possible sophomore slump, there are times when Holliday can’t hit, most of the lineup is unproven professionals and with all of these growing possibilities Pujols might cry.
The team that will prevail from all of this banter and yacking is the Brewers. With Braun, Fielder (contract year), Weeks, McGehee, Cory Hart and a sweet four man rotation it reminds me of their payroll…on the up and up. Now I do understand that Zack Greinke will miss the start of the season, but if they hold a tight grip slightly above .500 until his return they will be sailing on, in a no wake zone. John Axford needs to have a rock-solid first full-time role as the closer, the chances will be plentiful. The only big job manager Ron Roenicke has to fill is the #5 spot in the rotation and with the look of some prospects like Manny Parra, Frankie De La Cruz and Willy Peralta it seems like he has some options. This organization and team seems to be all in this season. The only quandary is they still might need to match something on the “river” card to solidify the playoff spot. The Brew Crew will beat up on the Pirates (as always). They should also take ten wins from the Astros, Cubs and Cards. That’s at least forty wins within the division right there. Split the matchups with Cincinnati and they’ll be halfway home. The Brewers will fight in there last round with Prince Fielder.
The Pirates, oh boy what can I say? They have my heart, but my eyes have a tough time watching. Hopefully the kids can play and win some games. Pedro Alverez, Jose Tabata and Andrew McCutchen look to be fantastic, but when you give up 5+ runs a game and Paul Maholm is your #1 starter, well there’s not much you can say in the positive way. Last year the team was last in the Majors with a 5.00 ERA. The pitching is obviously ugly and if I have to hear anymore commentary on how beautiful PNC Park is I might choke myself out.
Finally, the Houston Astros. They seem to know how to play in the second half each year but with the five foot nothing Wandy Rodriguez as the projected #1 starter in the rotation they won’t be going anywhere. They will play around in the basement of the NL Central testing out third basemen Chris Johnson and first baseman Brett Wallace to see what the future holds. All of this will be in the background while Carlos Lee tries to make fans forget about his performance last season. And he will.
NL CENTRAL
1. Cincinnati Reds
2. Milwaukee Brewers (Wild Card)
3. St. Louis Cardinals
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
5. Chicago Cubs
6. Houston Astros
AL Central
This is a very competitive division minus the horrid squad in Cleveland. First it was the Browns, then loosing LeBron for the Cavaliers and now, or should I say again with the Indians. However, the top three teams are so interesting. It will shape up to be a dogfight that we all can enjoy, with Michael Vick. The Twins have been very competitive until they meet up with the Yankees in the playoffs every year under the great mind and control of Ronald Clyde "Gardy" Gardenhire. A gloomy 2011 is here though, so all you Twin City maniacs get ready to be disappointed early. With an already banged up Mauer, a head knocked Morneau, a recovering former top closer Joe Nathan, a DL stint regular Kevin Slowey and a pitching staff that flip-flops between good and bad like a U.S. politician… I can’t see them finishing better than the two other stacked teams in their division.
Detroit I like very much, in particular Jim Leyland and the way a man at his age can get the respect and the job done every year. Mr. Leyland battles with a team filled with injuries during the season and finds ways to win, but just quite never enough. The addition of Victor Martinez is huge. Along with a healthy Magglio and hopefully a corrected Brandon Bosch to mirror the first half of last year the team should gain a few wins. The bats in Detroit will and always do produce, a fact that can't be written-off. A set back is in the pitching like so many other clubs. Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer can top the rotation striking out the world and all who dare to come armed in the batter’s box wielding a bat, but who will pick up the slack in the three other games without them? They will challenge, they will fight and Jim Leyland will have them ready for combat as the race in the AL Central starts at game one.
The Chi-Town Sox are taking over the city of Chicago again! Oh wait, I mean still. I stand by Ozzie, not what he says because I have a real tough time understanding him, but how he manages a team. It’s exactly the way to do it…heart, soul and fire…with a whole lot of crazy. Don’t knock his knowledge of the game as well, the man is smart and has no problem taking chances. The power is there for this team, the speed is there and the pitching is there. What else do you need to win a division? Getting rid of Bobby Jenks was wonderful and it breaks open the competition for Matt Thornton and Chris Sale. If the White Sox come out strong, unlike the past few years I say they go on long. Adam Dunn heedless to say is a big addition to any lineup no matter how low his batting average sinks.
Kansas City will have the best second half of baseball this season and that could through a monkey wrench heading towards the end of the season for a top division team who might have to play them six or so more times. Once the Royals get all their kids up and out from the minors (and they seem to have plenty down there) to meld and watch them for the future, this team will have a ton of spunk and grit as they attempt to bring winning baseball back to KC in 2012 and 2013.
I’ve said all I have to say about Cleveland and I’ll end it with a three word note to the city…
Dear Cleveland Indians fans,
I am sorry.
AL CENTRAL
1. Chicago White Sox
2. Detroit Tigers
3. Minnesota Twins
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Cleveland Indians
NL West
No joke, I’m not lying and I never will, but in March of last year on an online contest sponsored by Gillette I picked the San Francisco Giants to go to the World Series. I was shocked; of course the ending of the story had me losing the contest anyway by also predicting the Yankees to beat them in six games. So I guess no million dollar check from the shaving company for me, boo-hoo.
I’m so completely torn with this division it kills me. The Giants are pretty much in tack with the same team as last year minus Juan Uribe who traveled down the coast to play for the rival Dodgers. I like the team and everyone on it just as I did last year, but something in my mind is off. There pitching is sick, the bats are worthy especially under pressure. With the idea of forty pounds off of the Kung-Fu Panda and an entire year with Buster Posey behind the plate why question myself? Not to mention a Madison Bumgarner’s first full year and more prospects waiting in line as well. All these facts and proven skills by winning a World Series last year and it still has me thinking that Bruce Bochy and the gang will fall short in 2011. No matter how much I enjoy watching “The Freak” mow down his competition the Giants will slip and slip hard.
Colorado and Don Mattingly’s L.A. Dodgers will battle back and forth all over this divisions face. I think this year turns the luck and persistence upside down to sit the right way for Mattingly for the first time in a while. His pitching staff of Kershaw, Lilly, Billingsly, Kuroda and whoever becomes number five because of John Garland’s latest injury will be consistent. They will be a force and keep runners off the bases or at least keep runs from piling up on the scoreboard. On the other side, the Dodgers do have bats as well with Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp taking the load. This team will improve drastically from last year’s mess and battle hard with the Giants and Rockies all marathon long.
The Rockies certainly have bats with power and pop, but the dependability isn’t always there, as is with their pitching as well. Ubaldo Jimenez posted a 19 – 8 win/loss record with a 2.88 ERA and a blistering 214 strikeouts to build a gorgeous stat book for last year, but still his second half was just asi-asi (so-so). It seems to me that Colorado’s pitching is either lights out or a chaos and the same goes for their offense. The greatest name in baseball, Troy Tulowitzki better live up to that contract and stay healthy and the same goes for last year’s MVP contender Carlos Gonzalez. If Carlos can do three quarters of the production he put up last year he’ll be worth all the pennies in his contract. “Das alotta pennies!”
With the waves in LA straightening out to a comfortable balance this year for the Dodgers I think Colorado will just fall short to miss there infamous made up month of “Rock-tober”. The Giants are going to be in the mix most of the season, but as the season dwindles into late August the winds will be blowing too much for the Giants to with stand as the Rockies and Giants fight for 2nd place.
While the “Whale’s Vagina” Padres suffer a real hard reality check and fall down in the standings it makes one team go up by default. Arizona unimpressively gains ground in the division by playing two or so games better then Padres. Both are bottom of the barrel clubs and if you don’t think the fleeing Adrian Gonzalez is happy as a pig in shit then you my friend don’t know baseball.
NL WEST
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. San Francisco Giants
3. Colorado Rockies
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. San Diego Padres
AL West
The lone four team division, where if you’re an “okay” bunch, you might just get by. I understand that the Angels of Anaheim have been great in recent past just like the Oakland A’s were at one time. Even Seattle had an amusing little run a few years back winning 120 plus games, but last year was the Rangers turn. It was the first playoff win and World Series appearance in franchise history. Don’t get me wrong, I caught myself hitching a ride on the Texas bandwagon last year and it was fun. Congratulations to Mr. Nolan Ryan as well. To see that stern heavy face behind home plate throughout the playoffs almost scared me half to death, I couldn’t imagine playing for the man. This feels all hunky-dory in a Cinderella type-land, too bad Mike Scioscia doesn’t deal with losing all that well. As quick as it started the one-star state’s party might be over.
In Texas, Ron Washington could be in need of an 8-ball come mid-season to deal with the loss of Cliff Lee and my man Vladi Guerrero. If they trade Michael Young away that would boast a few more all-nighters. But please Ron, whatever you do DO NOT give a line of that white stuff to Josh Hamilton…the poor kid has had enough for a lifetime, even if he is (and probably will be) sidelined with an injury. Adrian Beltre, I do not trust his last season numbers .321 AVG with 28 dingers and 102 RBI’s, I blame it on Fenway Park just because I can’t think of a better excuse. Nelson Cruz is another DL hanging waste. The young pitching has promise with Lewis, C.J. Wilson, Hunter and Holland and second year closer Neftali Feliz. A ton of pressure for that kid and I hope he can with stand the monkey setting up camp on his back. As I’ve said more times then you want to read it, it all comes down to a marathon race and it’s a good thing for the Angels that Scioscia doesn’t physically have to run it. He only has to manage it and we all know how well he does that. He is filled with brilliant intelligence and a hefty-sack of pride.
I’ve overheard a few people talking about the Oakland A’s this year maybe making a run, but I just don’t see it. Personally I think they overachieved last year and embarked many fans on false hope. Cliff Pennington is exciting to watch with some wonderful pitching last year from Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson and Gio Gonzalez the A’s have promise. To me this division comes down to the rematch of Mike vs. Ron. Yeah, yeah, yeah I know Oakland beat out the Angels last year, but it was by one game and I choose to block that out. Texas and LA are the powerhouses. Oakland is the scrappy bunch that could factor. My monopoly money is on the Angels this year with an experienced outfield and a sweet sweet pitching staff who are terribly underrated. All heads must be on straight to get the job done.
The A’s will play hard and get some wins, but I don’t know if a couple additions to the bullpen and Hideki Matsui will really factor much a difference. Some young and exciting players to watch like I've stated earlier, which is always fun.
Seattle, well besides the one or two days a week King Felix Hernandez is on the mound let’s just say I’d rather watch Oakland.
AL WEST
1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
2. Texas Rangers
3. Oakland Athletics
4. Seattle Mariners
Into The Postseason
“Nostradamus Never Put Money on a Thing”
A large majority of the people I’ve talked with over the past few months through various message boards, fantasy leagues and around the workplace have all said the same thing, “Looks like a Red Sox and Phillies World Series.” It seems that way, on paper. I have tried my best to be different and mix things up a bit. Boston’s possible injury situation screws with my head while Philadelphia’s age weighs heavily on my brain. I wanted St. Louis, but now I just can’t seem to pull the trigger on the Cards so I end up with my fourth or fifth set of predictions. It’s an extremely hard guessing game in a sport that spans over 26 weeks for 162 games. A lot can happen and I can assure everyone it will.
National League American League
Phillies Red Sox
Reds White Sox
Dodgers Angels
Brewers (WC) Yankees (WC)
NL Championship Game AL Championship Game
Phillies vs. Reds Yankees vs. White Sox
2011 World Series
Philadelphia Phillies
Vs.
Chicago White Sox
Low and behold I find myself with these two teams. I know the odds of this all coming down to these particular two teams is as much of a ridiculous fantasy as being adopted by some high profile celebrity and be set for life under their great fortune. I can kiss that dream good-bye. Funny thing is that I don’t even really want to see the Phillies make the long run. If it was my choice Cliff Lee would’ve signed with the Pirates this year in a package deal with Alex Rodriguez and Tim Lincecum, and I’d laugh and laugh and laugh in an unexplained euphoria. It didn’t so I have to pick out of these two…
Chicago White Sox
Adam Hammer’s “Loose Lips”
Take on 2011
AL East: Yankees. If you want to crown the Red Sox, then crown their ass, I'm taking the Yankees.
AL Central: Twins. Leyland won't take Miguel Should Have Taken a CABrera's crap for too long. Cabrera can and will put up sick numbers but will just drain the team of energy.
AL West: A's: Pitching, pitching, pitching…and Matsui. The division is a good race but K. Morales is a question mark for the Angels and the Rangers have only gotten worse since October.
AL Wild Card: The Red Sox. Cause if I didn't, I would get yelled at.
NL East: Phillies. Do I really have a choice here? Despite Lee thinking he spurned the Yankees to go to a younger team, he joined the oldest team in baseball, and it shows. The team is a mash unit and will be one all year. Reports of Brad Lidge and his diminishing stuff will make it harder for the Phils to close a game than it was to close the Jon Benet Ramsey case.
NL Central: Reds. Wainwright out for the year, Carpenter older, and the emergence of Leake and Wood will make Cincy tough this year. By the way, Cueto's a dick.
NL West: Rockies. The Giants were a patch-work team and will have a hangover year. The Rockies have a nice combo of talent in all spots and it will get them a sweet first round elimination.
NL Wild Card: Brewers. Revamped pitching and a last run attitude with Prince will get them in gear.
World Series:
Yankees over Rockies.
(I'm not picking Philly or the Red Sox because I refuse to conform.)
*Adam’s side note directly aimed at me: “2011 Pittsburgh Pirates: Ready, set, terrible!”
Biggest Surprise in 2011:
- One of the Mets or San Diego Padre pitchers will finally conquer and complete a no hitter this year.
- Atlanta Braves win 90 games and miss out on the playoffs because of a one game matchup for the wild card spot against the Milwaukee Brewers.
- Kansas City Royals post in the top 3 win-loss record after the All-Star break.
- Dare I say the Pittsburgh Pirates play hard and make it over .500 baseball this year? Nah, I wouldn’t say that, but if it does happen this could be me saying it.
- Prince Fielder wins NL MVP making sure Milwaukee doesn’t have enough money for a new contract next year.
- Bud Norris from the Houston Astros emerges as a Top 10 strikeout pitcher.
- The New York Mets sell a quarter of the team to Mike Tyson, just for fun to see what he would do…First business, he wants to change the term “clubhouse” to the “Pigeon Hole”
- Don Mattingly receives Manager of the Year award for turning around the LA Dodgers and getting back into the playoffs.
- The World Series will experience its first 7 game series since 2002.
- Alex Rodriguez will come back to form (now 2 years removed of steroids) and win the AL MVP award.
Biggest Demise in 2011:
- The San Francisco Giants miss out on the playoff as they try to defend the World Series title.
- To make it even more dramatic 5 out of 8 playoff teams from 2010 do NOT make it back into the playoffs this year. (Twins, Rays, Rangers, Giants and Atlanta)
- Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett do not make it a whole season due to injuries, which will affect their first round playoff loss.
- Tampa bay Rays attendance falls even further into obscurity averaging 9,000 fans a game, not counting the few times the Yankees come to town, of course.
- Either Wrigley Field or Fenway Park announces reconstruction is a future plan for a better and bigger ballpark, sadly leaving all history behind in this Great America Past-time.
- San Diego Padres fall from second place after winning 90 games in 2010 to last place and become “the dumpster babies” in the NL West.
Quick Fantasy Outlook:
NL – Top 15
- Albert Pujols STL
- Joey Votto CIN
- Roy Halladay PHI
- Hanley Ramirez FLA
- Prince Fielder MIL
- Tim Lincecum SF
- Ryan Braun MIL
- Ryan Howard PHI
- Troy Tulowitzki COL
- Buster Posey SF
- Carlos Gonzalez COL
- Cliff Lee PHI
- Andrew McCutchen PIT
- David Wright NYM
- Mike Stanton FLA
NL “Surprise City” Picks
1. Shawn Marcum MIL
2. Pedro Alverez PIT
3. Josh Thole NYM
4. Freddie Freeman ATL
5. Brandon Belt SF
AL – Top 15
- Miguel Cabrera DET
- Felix Hernandez SEA
- Adrian Gonzalez BOS
- Alex Rodriguez NYY
- Robinson Cano NYY
- Even Longoria TB
- Jon Lester BOS
- Carl Crawford BOS
- Josh Hamilton TEX
- Mark Teixeira NYY
- Dustin Pedroia BOS
- Joe Mauer MIN
- David Price TB
- CC Sabathia NYY
- Adam Dunn CHW
AL “Surprise City” Picks
1. Matt Wieters BAL
2. Kyle Drabek KC
3. Matt Thornton CHW
4. Michael Pineda SEA
5. Brian Matusz BAL
This Monday…
Week One part 1
(March 31st – April 3rd)
“Whew! It’s Opening Weekend”
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