Wednesday, April 4, 2012

2012 ISSUE #2


The Possibilities & Probability of changes within the League
1.     Two extra playoff teams
-       Do I really need to explain myself here?  Understanding that adding an extra playoff team in the AL & NL for a one game win or go home situation sounds exciting, it also gives my faintly beating heart one more pound as I dream of that extra chance for the Pirates to have a shot…I also see and understand the bad in this idea.
The rule change is inevitable and will be a part of this season.  All true baseball fans, by just looking at the facts and outcomes of the past five years can see this is a bad idea.  Yes, absolutely…this is Bud Selig’s way of generating more revenue and commercial profit, we know that, but can it really give us any more excitement then the last day of the season in 2011?  Not a chance.  When Tampa Bay, Boston, Atlanta and St. Louis were all battling it out for the final two spots (the original Wild Card game) it was without question the best baseball can be.  The MLB season is a six-month dogfight and if you fail in September, no matter what lead you lost hold of, you don’t deserve a second chance.  It’s that simple.  Hell, most old time fans can’t even wrap their heads around the whole Wild Card idea that MLB installed in 1995.  I enjoy it.  I respect it.  I like the idea of a five game series, but to give Boston and Atlanta an extra game last year to prove they belong in the playoffs would erase the entire greatness of a team collapsing…in this case two teams. 
There shouldn’t be an extra gift under the tree if you are naughty.  There shouldn’t be any sort of prize for failing when it counts the most…it’s just too bad commercial revenue rules TV.

2.     Houston moving to the AL (2013)
-       This change on the other hand makes so much sense you can’t seem to figure out why the two leagues have been un-even for so long.  In 2013, it will be 15 teams in the AL and 15 teams in the NL.  Finally making it a kosher five teams in all six divisions. How’s my math?  Another positive about this move is the obvious, a new in-state rivalry as the Astros and Rangers will battle it out every year for the pompous Lone-Star state.  “The stars at night are big and bright, [clap, clap, clap, clap] deep in the heart of Texas”.  Or how I like to finish the song… “-We think our states, a country!”

The Doctor’s 2012 Predictions
“Outside the Boroughs”

            If we learned anything from this blog in 2011 it was never to bet with the Doctor.  I wanted and had St. Louis in the World Series last year until news about losing Adam Wainwright for the season surfaced and all the, what seemed to be, bad blood at the time between Albert Pujols and the St. Louis  “suites” in his contract year.  So I took them down and out of the playoffs while putting my money behind Ozzie Guillen’s White Sox, who sucked as bad as Adam Dunn’s batting average.  It’s a common mistake for a man who usually disregards his initial feelings and bets against himself.  I also went with the Phillies who won 102 games in the regular season and once again couldn’t find their way in the postseason.  All in all it was God-awful for the doctor only hitting on a few teams and missing out on the rest.  My one prediction I was happy about was the thought of Atlanta winning 90 games and missing the playoffs…I was very close as they won 89 and just missed out. 
            This year will be another clean slate for embarrassing future thoughts that confirm the idea that Nostradamus never bet on a thing.  It’s a guessing game with as much knowledge and luck involved as possible.  I hope I don’t end up with Ozzie’s new team in Miami when I get to my picks for this year’s World Series, but you never know…so keep scrolling down and enjoy the contradictions…I mean read.
 

AL CENTRAL

            It’s not 2013 yet correct?  So the Royals pitchers aren’t out of the minors in time to effect the season that is upon us.  I love everything the organization has done with their lineup and just like last year I’m convinced they will score plenty of runs.  With Moustakas, Hosmer, (newly signed w/ contract extension) Gordon and Billy Butler this offense will wreak havoc on opponent’s pitchers.  However, for now the pitching is still pretty lame.
            As I just reported earlier, I was all high and mighty on the White Sox last year around this time and I was let down as heavy as Precious(see what I did there?)  The Sox seem to be a mess with great talent…yeah, I don’t get it either.  Adam Dunn is coming off his worst season in his 11-year career as he batted .159 and hit only 11 HRs.  He never batted for average, but power was what he was about.  The Floyd/Danks situation on the mound has yet to work out.  Two young guys with understandable talent haven’t been consistent enough to matter.  Regardless, they are both back this year and the always-fiery Ozzie Guillen is not.  Possibly a managerial change is what was needed, but personally I think they need the athletes like Jake Peavy to last the course of a season without getting hurt.
            The Tigers will be the team to beat, by far as Jim Leyland runs the team like an Army ready for battle.  The big pick up of Price Fielder will only improve the teams record and Verlander’s winning percentage as well.   The only thing I see going wrong in Detroit is if they take too much of a lead they become soft in September and October when it counts. 
            The Indians lead the division last year for the first four months, but I don’t see this team repeating that success.   They will contend, but too weak to succeed. 
            Minnesota still has that new out door stadium, yeah for year two!

Tigers
White Sox
Royals
Indians
Twins

NL CENTRAL

            The World Series Champion St. Louis Cardinals will enter 2012 with their star player ready to prove his worth…that’s right people…David Freese!  The NL Championship and World Series MVP will be defending their title in front of the sea of red, without Pujols the former St. Louis MVP.  This division has lost two of it’s best power hitters in Pujols and Fielder so I think the season spread open as far as Catherine Tramell’s legs in that most memorable scene back in 1992.  The Brewers still hold all the cards with a wonderful pitching staff.  The Reds took over the best offensive strike with their many weapons in Votto, Bruce and Phillips.  It seems to be the same top three teams in this division with a familiar bottom three as well.
            Get this…
            The Cubbies stadium and city is awesome, the team sucks like a Shark vacuum.
            The Pirates have some raw young talent, but their stadium will be talked about in a better light for the 11th consecutive year.  It’s getting real old boys and so is the astonishing streak currently in the record books as they most likely will add yet another year and move towards 20 loosing seasons in a row.
            Finally the Houston Astros…positive, this is the last year in the NL Central.  Negative, they will be moving to the AL West.

Reds
Brewers (wild card)
Cardinals
Pirates
Cubs
Astros

AL EAST

            The toughest divisions in all of baseball again, with Boston and New York sustaining their prowess of huge payrolls and Joe Maddon’s well-bellow average payroll real deal Rays.  Now with all that jazz still going on you have to add the up and coming Toronto Blue Jays in the mix as a considerate threat.
            Boston’s rotation and bullpen will falter the team’s success at the plate this year no matter what people think Billy Valentine will do for them in the dugout and clubhouse.  I also will add that I think Toronto can improve on last year’s .500 season to attempt to make it over the hump…but will that hump be too tall and burn the youngsters out?
            Going into 2011 the Yankees biggest question mark was their starting pitching.  In 2012 it seems Joe Girardi has all the options in the world on who takes the mound everyday, plus a killer bullpen with the “Big 3” – Soriano, Robertson and Rivera.  For me, the Bronx Bombers have it.  The tougher decision in this division is the 2nd, 3rd and 4th place finishes rounded out by the overmatched Orioles. 
            Mmmmmm…let me get out the magic 8-ball…

Yankees
Rays (wild card)
Blue Jays
Red Sox
Orioles

NL EAST

            Oh, those aging Phillies.  The 1, 2, 3 men in the rotation will keep them in every game they take the hill, but with this division getting stronger and increasingly competitive every year and the questionable move on paying for Jonathan “show me your mean face” Papelbon, I think 100 wins is a time of the past.  Washington seems to be better every year and Steve Strasburg will attempt a shot at his first full season.  Miami is paid for with stars coming in and Atlanta always plays top-notch at Turner Field.
            With Reyes, Hanley, Stanton and Morrison the speed/power combo killer of Miami will set the South on fire.  The addition of Heath Bell over former disaster closer Leo Nunez is a 100% improvement.  If Josh Johnson can last a season w/o missing too much time a Marlin run can be made here as early as 2012 filling the new ballpark towards the end of the season.
            The Nationals surprisingly won 80 games last season so thinking 8 to 10 more wins in 2012 could be a reasonable conclusion as long as the inter-division games go their way.  Oh yeah Borough fans, the Mets are in the NL East as well.  After slicing the payroll in half look for the release of Jason bay and the promise of Duda, Davis and Tejada…that’s it.  No matter how good Johan Santana pitches he seems like trade bait come July.

Phillies
Nationals
Marlins
Braves
Mets

AL WEST

            The Texas Rangers won the West by 10 games last year and I don’t feel that they will be giving all that back so soon.  Everyone knows the Angels improved with C.J. Wilson and Albert Pujols and I love Mike Scioscia’s coaching ability, but 10 games is a lot.  The rangers will go for the tri-fecta with a bit more trouble, but regardless of what order the top two teams finish both teams will have a chance in the “2nd” season.  It comes down to what you do with that one game gift.
            Oakland will flirt with 80 wins, but not score enough runs for those close games.  Seattle will give headaches to King Felix and the whole grunge scene up in the Northwest…just kidding; we all know grunge is dead.

Rangers
Angels
A’s
Mariners

NL WEST

            The most underrated division, maybe because I’m over here on the East Coast, but far away or not this division is tremendously competitive.  Colorado, SF, LA and Arizona are all contenders with the Padres acting as the Orioles, Mets, Twins, Astros and Mariners of this division. 
            We know the Giants (MO), great pitching/sub par hitting.  Colorado is the complete opposite with great hitting/sub par pitching.  The Dodgers are very even-Steven and were quietly four games over .500 last Season.  They have a premier player in Matt Kemp and a premier starting pitcher in Clayton Kershaw…will it or can it be enough? 
            In a surprise even to myself, I like the looks of Arizona with kirk Gibson running the roost.  Then I lean back in my chair to really ponder my thoughts… Can three teams in one division make the playoffs by taking both wild card positions?  No, not in it’s first year of existence… It comes down to, if Arizona is going to click as well as last year, they win out easy.  If the pitching doesn’t live up to 2011 with their “never-give-up” young bats faltering under the pressure of last years over achievement, they loose big.  Last year was no question an underdog story…this year they are supposed to be good.  Confused yet?  Me too.

Giants
Dodgers (wild card)
Diamondbacks
Rockies
Padres


           
           
American League Championship
Tigers over Yankees

National League Championship
Giants over Reds


2012 World Series Champion
Detroit Tigers
 
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Adam Hammer’S “loose Lips”

AL East: The Yankees will win the division. The Rays by far have the best rotation; the Yankees the best bullpen and either the Yankees or Red Sox by far have the best offense. The Red Sox rotation will cost them, and the Yankees rotation is solid enough to hold off the Rays.

AL Central: Tigers will have this wrapped up by the second week of September. The Royals are better, the Indians exist, the Twins don't have a rotation and the White Sox are run by a bunch of rubes.

AL West: The Angels bullpen will cost them the division, but they will still take the wild card. The A's will make a strong push for the division though.....in 2015

NL East: It's the Phillies to lose. The Nationals are not nearly as good as people think they are. The Braves did nothing, but the Marlins have overhauled the whole franchise, and will win the wild card as long as Josh Johnson makes 30 starts.

NL Central: The Brewers will replace Fielder's numbers with the combo of Aramis Ramirez and Alex Gonzalez, a huge improvement over 2011's left side of the infield. The Astros are scheduled to play 162 games. There is a chance they will win some of those.

NL West: The Diamondbacks suddenly strong rotation and robust offense will get them the division. The Dodgers bad times are behind them, but wait until they get Cole Hamels before thinking they can win the division.

The Yankees win the AL and the Diamondbacks win the NL. History will repeat itself, but not 2001. When Kentucky wins, the Yankees win. Book it.

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